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A new Zogby Analytics poll of 235 likely Republican primary/caucus voters shows former Florida Governor Jeb Bush leading all challengers with 16%, followed by former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee with 11%, Neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson 10%, Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker at 9%, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul at 8%, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina with 5%, real estate magnate Donald Trump 3%, and several candidates all with 1% each (Ohio Governor John Kasich, former New York Governor George Pataki, former Texas Governor Rick Perry, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum). Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal just missed the rounding up with a .4% and South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham received no votes. One in seven (14%) were undecided. The poll was conducted online on May 30-31.

The poll shows the top five candidates at 11%-12% each among men, but Mr. Bush leading with 20% among women, followed by Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Rubio with 13% each. Mr. Bush's strength comes from 30-49 year olds and voters over 65, as well as self-identified Republicans and moderates. He also had a slight lead among conservatives with 15%, followed by Dr. Carson and Mr. Huckabee with 12%, Mr. Cruz at 11%, and Mr. Walker with 10%. Dr. Carson does particularly well among 18-29 year olds with 25%, easily topping Mr. Huckabee's 16% and Mr. Christie's 15%. Coming off a particularly good start in early May, Mrs. Fiorina leads among self-described independents with 16% to Mr. Paul's 13%.

As we did among Democrats, we asked whether GOP likely primary/caucus voters felt that Mr. Bush "deserves to be the Republican nominee or (you) would prefer someone else." Almost half (48%) said they preferred someone else while 30% said they believed he deserved the nomination. Both moderates (45% to 23%) and conservative (55%-27%) believed that it is time for someone else.

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