Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton still leads two major possible 2016 Republicans opponents by double digits but is held under 50% for the first times in Zogby Analytics polling. The new nationwide poll of 902 likely voters, conducted online May 21-22, shows Mrs. Clinton leading former Florida Governor Jeb Bush 49% to 32%, with 14% saying they prefer to vote for "someone else", and 5% not sure. In another matchup, she leads New Jersey Governor Chris Christie by 14 points, 47% to 33%, with 14% selecting "someone else", and 6% undecided.

In the poll's only other test horse race, Mrs. Clinton holds a 17 poll lead over Kentucky Senator Rand Paul 51% to 34% , with 10% for someone else, and 6% not sure.

No candidates are formally announced and the election is a long time from now, but the polling does reveal some opportunities and problems that candidates face on both sides. Although hardly fatal, Mrs. Clinton has lost a few points and is now under 50% against two moderate potential challengers. On the flip side, both Messrs. Bush and Christie are well known and the fact that they are polling in the mid-thirties is not a good sign for the GOP at all. As well, the fact that double digit percentages are selecting another candidate opens up a lot of questions about turnout and the weaknesses of both parties.

Crosstabs are available here.

A close examination of the Clinton-Bush numbers shows that Mr. Bush has some real problems, probably stemming from the tenure of his older brother in the White House. The numbers also show that he only leads among Born Again Christians by a factor of 44% to 37%, a huge problem to face. Among independents he is down 36% to 26%, with a very high 28% choosing "someone else". And despite being married to a Latina and being fluent in Spanish, Mr. Bush is down 73% to 13% among Hispanic voters. He is only garnering 59% of conservatives, with 19% of this group preferring someone else. Meanwhile, Mrs. Clinton has the support of 88% of Democrats, 86% of liberals, 54% of moderates, 52% of Catholics, 73% of Hispanics, and 91% of African Americans (to Mr. Bush's 1%!).

Governor Christie's problems are similar. He does better among men and independents than Mr. Bush in the horse race, but he receives only 52% support from conservatives to Mrs. Clinton's 21% -- and 22% of conservatives selecting someone else.

Mr. Paul does best among conservatives - 68% to 19%, with only 11% flying the coop, but he too only leads among Republican voters 67% to 17%, while Mrs. Clinton holds 89% of Democrats.

The biggest problem for all three of the candidates is that they are each receiving only about 40% of the white vote. Senator John McCain lost in 2008 when he won 57% of the white vote - and whites were 74% of the total vote that year. Former Governor Mitt Romney also got 57% of the white vote in 2012 and whites were 71% of the total. Mrs. Clinton - or any Democrat, for that matter - is poised to receive a very large share of the growing non-white electorate. The GOP faces a significant demographic problem going into 2016.

Crosstabs are available here.

Again, anything can happen. Perhaps a spate of unfavorable publicity has reduced Hillary Clinton's total to under 50%? And perhaps any publicity will only make people tire of her in the public eye? But, at least for now, the GOP is on the ropes for the next Presidential election.