David Jolly pounded hard on Obamacare and had help from former Governor Jeb Bush. Alex Sink did not run away from Obamacare and used a famous Clintonian line about the need to "mend it not end it". She even used the robocall services of former President Bill Clinton. The race was very close and Jolly won by 3,500 votes. The GOP is ecstatic and motivated even further to run against Obama's Folly. Democrats are running scared and see the potential for a congressional Dunkirk in the fall. Their message to Mr. Obama: stay away from our district and state.

Sorry, I just don't see it that way. I have been doing elections a very long time and not all supposed bellwethers hold up. Let's first examine the Florida 13th. Alex Sink, the Democrat, is just not a good candidate. After being dubbed a frontrunner in the 2010 Florida gubernatorial election, she blew it. She actually lost to a very controversial billionaire health care magnate whose company (the one he founded and ran) pleaded guilty to 14 felony counts. There is no question about Ms. Sink's competence - she was successful both in business and as the state's CFO. She just doesn't connect with voters very well. She also did not live in the county that composed the congressional district. Again, her frontrunner status was based on name recognition and not actually knowing her. She had a rough time revving up the Democratic base - especially younger voters-but she appears to have done well among independents and moderates. Independents agreed with her moderate position on Obamacare. The district - long held by the GOP - stayed in GOP hands.

Now let's look at Obamacare. A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out a few days ago shows that only 19% of voters nationwide want to repeal it outright. A majority want it to be tweaked/improved, and 17% want to retain it as it is. This is not a national mandate to eliminate the President's signature legislation. Unless things go completely haywire between now and the fall, millions more Americans will be enrolled, have paid their premiums, have had health care problems covered, and will be thankful beneficiaries. Taking it away from them will just not be an option.

With that said, it is hard to see a scenario where Democrats take back the House of Representatives. They need to win 17 seats and there appears to be enough safe GOP seats to allow them to hold on. The fact that a poor campaigner in Florida came within a hair of winning a GOP seat should actually give the Republicans more pause.

As for the Senate, I have noted before, that the GOP is counting on a 2010 turnout model that is older, whiter, and more conservative. It is fundamental to understanding the strategy behind the money being spent by the Koch Brothers and other conservative PACs to demonize the President. However, what the Democrats actually have this time that they didn't have four years ago is a possible continuing economic recovery, a dent in the national debt, and more empowered Hispanics, African Americans, Asian Americans, and young people (particularly young women) who will have health coverage and who are frankly scared by the GOP.

David Jolly won in the 13the congressional district in Florida, but I don't think it means very much at all.