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Newsmax/Zogby Poll: Virginia Governor's Race Too Close

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With only about a month to go, a new Newsmax/Zogby Poll of 600 likely voters in Virginia shows that gubernatorial race too close to call. In the race between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Ken Cucinelli, the Democrat outpaces the Republican by an insignificant 33% to 32%, with 11% choosing "another candidate" and a huge 24% undecided.

 The poll was conducted online September 27-29 and has a margin of sampling error of +/-4.1 percentage points.

When "another candidate" is offered in the person Libertarian Party nominee Robert Sarvis, McAuliffe's lead increases to 5 points - 32% to Cucinelli's 27%, Sarvis's 13%, and 24% undecided. 

In still another horse race test, the Newsmax/Zogby Poll added the names of party runningmates for lieutenant governor. The McAuliffe/Ralph Northam ticket outpolls the Cucinelli/E.W. Jackson team 36% to 32%, with 8% choosing another candidate, and 24% still undecided.

All four major party candidates have net negative personal ratings. Cucinelli is viewed favorably by 32% with 51% unfavorable. McAuliffe is 37% favorable and 47% unfavorable. Jackson is 22% to 29% and Northam is 23% to 26%.

Pollster John Zogby: We learn a lot about Virginia voters in this poll. First, they are not fond of any of the candidates. An undecided of 24% at this stage of a race where fortunes have been spent strongly suggests that a lot of people don't really like any of the candidates. Second we learn that both the candidacies of Sarvis and Jackson are hurting Cucinelli among voters in the general election. Third, in a generic matchup for President in 2016, we find the state leaning toward a Democratic candidate by 8 points - 36% to 28%, with 32% undecided. Finally, we have parsed the GOP vote in Virginia among 4 separate groups: self-described "libertarians", "fiscal conservatives", "social conservatives", and "Tea Party". Among libertarians, Cucinelli leads McAuliffe 31% to 18%, but Sarvis receives 35%! Among fiscal conservatives, Cucinelli leads 57% to 7% with 21% for Sarvis. Among social conservatives, Cucinelli shuts out his opponents 79% and 13% undecided. And among Tea Partiers, Cucinelli leads 51% to 9% for McAuliffe, 13% for Sarvis, and 24% undecided. This race is not over.    

 

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