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New JZ Analytics Poll With Commentary by John Zogby

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Obama Has Nine Point Lead Over Romney, 45%-36%
Leads By 14 Points Among Women


President Barack Obama has opened up a 9-point lead over main GOP challenger former Governor Mitt Mitt Romney, according to a new JZ Analytics Online Poll conducted over the past weekend. The poll was conducted March 23-24 among 709 likely voters and has a margin-of-sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points.

The new poll shows a substantial gender gap, with Obama holding a 5 point lead among men (43%-38%) but a 14 point lead among women (47%-33%). In other findings, the President garners 89% support among African Americans (to Romney's 1%), 59% among Hispanics (to Romney's 24%), 55% of moderates (to Romney's 26%), and 58% of 18-29 year olds (to Romney's 29%).

In other findings, President Obama maintained his 46% job approval rating, with 51% disapproving of his performance. Only 41%, the same as our poll in early March, feel the President deserves re-election, and 32% say the U.S. is headed in the right direction, while 57% say things are on the wrong track.

In the Congressional generic ballot, 41% say they intend to vote the Democratic candidate in their district, while 38% will vote for the Republican.

Pollster John Zogby: "The President continues to benefit from the economy breaking his way and from Republican disarray. He has tightened up his base, but he has problems with independents - he and Romney are tied at 35% each, with 16% saying they will vote for "someone else", and 14% undecided. Among voters identified in 'swing states', the President leads by 4 points (43% to 39%). This sample included nearly the identical number of Tea Party supporters (182) and Occupy Wall Street supporters (181). Among the former, Romney leads 75% to 8%, and among the latter, Obama is ahead 70% to 16%."

*Methodology: JZ Analytics conducted an online survey from March 23-24 of 709 likely voters in the US. Using trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time. Using information based on census data, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 709 is +/- 3.8 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.


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