As Egyptians vote to select a president later this week, it is heartening that no one really knows how it will turn out - not even the pollsters. Egyptian public opinion has been fluid, seemingly changing daily. Since the whole process is new, no one has a model for voter turnout. But with a poll I conducted among a sample of 772 Egyptians May 4-10 with JZ Analytics, we have a better picture of what Egyptians are looking for.
Among the presidential candidates, moderate Islamist Abdel-Men'em Abul Fotouh lead the way with 32 percent' followed by Amr Mousa with 28 percent (just outside of the margin of error of 3.6 percent); followed by former Prime Minister Ahmad Shafiq with 14 percent. The Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi tied Nasserist candidate Hamdeen Sabahi for fourth place at 8 percent.
The picture remains fluid, but there are some telling findings in the poll.
One major question is about the Muslim Brotherhood and their Freedom and Justice Party, Egypt's best-organized political group. They had garnered a majority in the parliamentary elections, and seemed on track to substantially influence the shape of Egypt's next constitution. Many were already predicting their dominance - including determining the next presidential candidate. If not one of their own, at least one they endorse. But that picture has changed.
[ 2012 Egypt Presidential Election Poll Results Tables ]
[ 2012 Egypt Presidential Election Poll Key Findings ]
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