2024 Democratic Primary
It all comes down to if President Biden decides to run for a second term in 2024. If he doesn't there are a whole host of competent candidates on the Democratic side, but do they have the mettle and cross-over appeal to win over all of America? While that is something to ponder, Biden is in a good position after an impressive hold of the Senate and near miss in the House of Representatives in the midterm election. Biden has momentum after holding strong in an election that was a referendum of his first two years as president.
In our post-election poll of midterm voters, President Biden was beating his nearest hypothetical rivals nearly four to one (41%). The only candidates to get double digit support in a hypothetical primary were Vice President Harris (11%) and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT, 10%), followed closely by Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (9%).
The next closest candidates, all hypothetical, were Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA, 6%), Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA, 5%), and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY, 3%). Perennial Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams (2%) bottomed out the list, while 6% would support someone else and 8% were not sure.
President Biden performed well among all sub-groups but there were instances where some other politicians had increased support. Sen. Bernie Sanders moved into second place with younger voters aged 18-24 (20%) and 18-29 (21%), and Hispanics (15%).
Vice President Harris also slightly performed better with women (14%), suburban women (16%), and African Americans (19%), while Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg got higher scores with Independents (17%) and suburban men (14%).
In the event President Biden were to bow out as the nominee, Kamala Harris becomes the favorite according to our polling, as she received 32%, which was more than double Bernie Sanders (13%), and triple Pete Buttigieg (10%), who were the next closest candidates.
Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
Nov. 8th Voters
11/9/22 - 11/11/22
Likely Democratic Primary Voters
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 859 Nov. 8th voters in the US who are likely to vote in the Democratic Primary for President.
Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 859 is +/- 3.3 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
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2024 Republican Primary
Former President Trump had a strong lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, 47% to 28%. What's noteworthy is DeSantis has more than doubled his support from our last poll (12%, May 2022) and after a strong Republican performance all throughout Florida in the midterm election. Trump leads among most surveyed demographics, including all regions, especially the South (52%), urban voters (53%), younger voters aged 18-29 (58%), female voters (49%), non-college educated voters (53%), Hispanic voters (58%), Generation Z (62%), Millennial (56%) and Generation X voters (60%).
Nipping at Donald Trump's heels is Governor DeSantis. DeSantis has gained ground and is winning or close to Trump in key sub-groups, such as, older voters aged 65+ (DeSantis leads 41% to 33%), Independents (DeSantis leads 35% to 33%), suburban voters (Trump leads 41% to 37%), suburban males (DeSantis leads 47% to 37%), men (Trump leads 44%-32%), and voters with college degrees (Trump leads 38% to 34%). The only other candidate to get support within the margin of error was former Vice President Mike Pence (8%). Other novices, such as, former governor Nikki Haley-S.C. (3%), Gov. Kristi Noem-R-SD (2%), and Gov. Glenn Youngkin-R-VA (1%) received very little support among potential Republican primary voters.
At the very bottom of the list was Sen. Tim Scott-R-S.C. (1%) and television personality Tucker Carlson (1%). 2% wanted someone else and 8% were not sure.
When we excluded Donald Trump, DeSantis was the clear winner with 48%, while Mike Pence trailed in second place with 21%. Nikki Haley (4%) barely came within the margin of error, 6% would support someone else and 13% were not sure.
We have two long years to wait for the primaries and general election, but with Donald Trump announcing his candidacy the race starts immediately. It's still Trump and Biden's races to lose on their respective sides. A lot could happen between now and the general election. Biden could get really old in the next two years, or Trump might be indicted. Republicans do seem to have a successor in mind, Ron DeSantis, while the Democrats' successor to the president is most likely Kamala Harris, right now. The thought of another Biden and Trump presidential election is dull but the thought of neither running is exciting!
Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
Nov. 8th Voters
11/9/22 - 11/11/22
Likely Republican Primary Voters
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 864 Nov. 8th voters in the US who are likely to vote in the Republican Primary for President.
Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 864 is +/- 5.3 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.