Even though former President Donald Trump has yet to officially announce his 2024 presidential candidacy, he still dominates the GOP as a kingmaker and the most recognizable name in Republican politics. With Trump in the race for the GOP nomination, he receives a majority (54%) of votes from Republican primary voters, which is four to one more than the next most popular candidate, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (12%), with former Vice President Mike Pence nipping at DeSantis' heels with 10%.
No other candidate received support within the margin in the error, including Senators Ted Cruz-TX (4%) and Marco Rubio-FL (3%), former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (4%), former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (2%), current Texas Governor Greg Abbott (1%) and "someone else" (1%). One in ten Republican primary voters were not sure.
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Donald Trump dominated all sub-groups, whether it was age, region, income, gender, education and where voters lived. Former President Trump got staunch support from younger voters aged 18-24 (43%) and 18-29 (38%), 30-49 (59%), 50-64 (60%) and 65+ (48%).
When it came to region, Trump received at least 50% from every region-East (55%), South (58%), Central/Great Lakes (50%), and West (50%). The former president also received a majority support from men (53%) and women (54%). The controversial ex-president also performed well among Republican primary voters with college degrees (57%) and without college degrees (49%).
When it came to where voters lived the ex-president appealed to urban voters (49%), suburban voters (54%), and rural voters (57%). It is safe to say that if Donald Trump decides to run and is not put in shackles, which is highly unlikely, Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee in 2024. A Trump vs. Biden repeat is likely in 2024, which will divide a fractious country even more.
Here's where things get interesting! With Trump out of the race, it becomes a dog fight between the two conservatives-Former Vice President Mike Pence (23%) and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (27%). Senator Ted Cruz is the only other candidate to receive double digit support with 12%. No other candidate polled within the margin of error, except for "someone else," while 15% of Republican primary were not sure.
When it came to generations, Millennials (Pence 23%/DeSantis 17%) favored Pence more. Generation X (Pence 25%/DeSantis 27%) and Baby Boomers (Pence 21%/DeSantis 37%) favored Governor DeSantis, albeit with different intensity.
When it came to gender, both men (Pence 25%/DeSantis 31%) and women (Pence 21%/DeSantis 23%) slightly favored DeSantis over Pence. Senator Ted Cruz received 17% among male primary voters. Regionally, Republican primary voters were split; voters in the East (Pence 31%/DeSantis 29%) and West (Pence 22%/DeSantis 17%) regions were slightly more prone to support Mike Pence, while voters in the South (Pence 14%/DeSantis 29%) favored Ron DeSantis two to one, and DeSantis and Pence were in a statistical tie in the Central/Great Lakes region (Pence 28%/DeSantis 29%).
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When it came to where voters lived, Pence appealed to urban voters (Pence 24%/DeSantis 17%), but Ted Cruz also performed well with 17% support. Conversely, DeSantis performed very well with suburban voters (Pence 22%/DeSantis 36%), while the two rivals were tied among rural primary voters (Pence 22%/DeSantis 21%).
Donald Trump continues his hold on the Republican party. If he decides to run, he will be the nominee. He is the "Teflon Don." It does not matter what side show Congress puts on, what Attorney General decides to charge him with or investigate him, he for better or worse is the GOP right now. Will he win, it is hard to say but a repeat of 2020 will have grave consequences for the American public. Neither nominee, especially if Democrats stick with Joe Biden, will debate, or concede an election. With the country in economic shambles and divided as we have ever witnessed, we could be headed for severe turmoil and a lost decade, which will reverberate for generations. The best we can ask for would be for Trump and Biden to bow out and let new blood battle it out. If Trump were to move aside, Mike Pence has the experience, momentum, and name recognition to win the Republican nomination. He must get past Ron DeSantis, but it is possible DeSantis has peaked already, while Pence is just getting started.
Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
Likely Democratic Primary Voters
5/23/22 - 5/24/22
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 408 likely Republican Primary voters in the U.S.
Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 408 is +/- 4.9 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.
The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.