We recently asked likely voters what the response of the U.S. should be "if the People's Republic of China (PRC), attacked and invaded Taiwan, a semi-autonomous island off mainland China; should the U.S. support Taiwan and go to war against China, help solve the crisis diplomatically, or only support the Taiwanese resistance non-militarily?
A majority (54%) of surveyed voters wanted the hypothetical crisis solved diplomatically. Voters' response was anathema to President Biden's saber-rattling weeks ago, who vowed to support Taiwan militarily if ever attacked by China, thus voters had an exceptionally low tolerance for military conflict (14%) or any intervention, such as, supporting the resistance non-militarily (11%). More than one-fifth (22%) of voters were not sure about the what the U.S.'s response should be if China ever attacked Taiwan.
Is it the saturation of wars the U.S. has had to endure the last 20 years or the realization we might not be able to respond militarily? Although, we may be still the hegemonic power in the world, it is becoming painfully clear we are heading toward a future for more of a multi-polar world militarily and economically.
The surveyed voters who were most likely to want to go to war, if China ever attacked Taiwan, were men (20%), self-identified conservatives (19%), urban voters (20%), upper income voters-household income greater than $150K (21%), urban men (30%), Catholic men (25%), crypto-currency holders (23%), and respondents who are very likely to purchase cryptocurrencies in the future (26%).
Amongst those respondents who wanted to solve the issue diplomatically, there was not a lot of difference in intensity, but those voters who favored this course more were liberals (62%), Democrats (63%), Baby Boomers (64%), East urban voters (66%), South Suburban voters (64%), college educated voters (60%), suburban men (61%), and voters aged 55-69 (61%).
Only 11% of surveyed voters wanted the path of least resistance, which was supporting the Taiwanese resistance non-militarily. The respondents most likely to want to support the Taiwanese resistance non-militarily in a conflict involving China were rural women (17%) and rural parents (21%). More than one in five voters were not sure how the U.S. should respond; respondents who were the most unsure were suburban women (27%), suburban parents (28%) and rural parents (31%) and rural women (34%).
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Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
US Likely Voters
10/08/21 - 10/10/21
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 896 likely voters in the US.
Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. The party breakdown for this survey is as follows: 38% Democrat, 38% Republican and 24% Independent/unaffiliated.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 896 is +/- 3.3 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
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About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.
The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.