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economicindex021221

With the start of the new administration we have relaunched our economic index. The Index combines responses to 10 questions on Americans' views about their leaders (President, Congress), the direction of their country and their personal situations (job security, personal financial situation). This month's results will provide the benchmark score of 100. As we move forward, a score above 100 will indicate that the country's mood has improved while a score below 100 will show its mood getting worse.

The national survey of 873 likely voters, taken January 18 and 19, found 56% of likely voters rating President Biden's performance as 'excellent' or 'good' and only 34% giving the same rating to Congress. President Biden's numbers are best among African Americans and Hispanics (80% and 78%, respectively, rate his performance as 'excellent' or 'good') and young voters (73% in the 18-29 age group). Congress is especially poorly perceived among older voters (only 14% of survey respondents in the 65+ age group rate its performance as 'excellent' or 'good') and in the rural areas (21%).

Nearly 62 percent think the country is on the wrong track while only 29% believe it is heading in the right direction. Despite this, a strong majority (70%) is proud of the United States. Right direction sentiment is strongest among Hispanics (47%), African Americans (40%), those in the 30-49 age group (42%) and voters living in large cities (43%), and weakest among those in the 65+ age group (15%), rural areas (20%), those in the lowest income bracket-less than $25k (20%) and among Independents (22%, lower even than among Republicans). Most proud of the United States are males (81% are at least fairly proud, including 53% who are very proud) and voters in the 65+ age group (79%, 53%).

U.S. foreign and economic policy have received similar ratings, with only 37% and 38%, respectively, rating it as 'excellent' or 'good'. In the case of foreign policy, results are fairly similar across all demographic groups, with no major groups where the majority rate it as 'excellent' or 'good'. Things are not much different with respect to economy, with the exception of top earners (52% of those in the $150k+ income bracket rate the U.S. economy as 'excellent' or 'good') and urban males (51%).

A majority (51%) rate their personal financial situation as either 'excellent' or 'good' and a very similar number (52%) is fairly or very confident that their children will have a better life than themselves. An even larger number (62%) feels fairly or very secure in their current job. Voters in the East (56%), college educated (58%), large city residents (56%) and Hispanics (55%) are most likely to rate their personal financial situation as either 'excellent' or 'good'; on the other end, those in the 18-29 age group (42%) and African Americans (44%) are least likely to rate their own financial situation highly. Younger voters are more likely to think that their children will have a better life than themselves - 60% of respondents in the 18-29 age group are at least fairly confident of this compared to 43% of respondents in the 65+ age group. Sixty-eight percent of African American voters are at least somewhat confident that their children will have a better life than themselves.

A majority of likely voters (66%) feel fairly or very safe from threats from abroad. This is the question with the most uniform responses across different party, age and racial groups. Males tend to feel safer (76% feel at least fairly safe from threats from abroad) than females (58%).

 

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Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
US Likely Voters
1/18/21 - 1/19/21

Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 873 likely voters in the US.

Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.

Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. The party breakdown for this survey is as follows: 37% Democrat, 35% Republican and 28% Independent/unaffiliated.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 873 is +/- 3.3 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.

Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.

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About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.

The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.

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