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Voters Split on Whether Their Incumbent Deserves Re-Election

 UTICA, New York--One week before the mid-term elections, Republicans continue their lead over Democrats (48% - 43%) on whom voters plan to choose in the Congressional election.  Democrats, however, hold a small lead among those who have already voted.

Voters were also evenly split, 44% - 44%, on whether or not their Congressional representative deserves re-election.

The latest Zogby Interactive survey of likely voters conducted from Oct. 22-25 also found President Barack Obama's approval rating holding steady 47%.  

In the Congressional race in 2010, for which party's candidate do you intend to vote--Democrat or Republican?

Generic Ballot

Oct
25

Oct
18

Oct
14

Oct
11

Oct
4

Sep
27

Sep
20

Sep
14

Aug
30

Aug
23

Aug
12

Republican

48%

48%

49%

45%

43%

46%

43%

47%

43%

43%

42%

Democrat

43%

41%

40%

45%

43%

41%

44%

41%

41%

41%

41%

Neither

4%

3%

3%

4%

3%

4%

4%

3%

5%

3%

3%

Not sure

5%

9%

8%

6%

11%

10%

10%

10%

12%

13%

13%

Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

 

The Republican lead is primarily due to support from independents (51% for the Republican candidate - 33% for the Democrat candidate), men (54% -39%), voters 65 and older (53% - 42%), those afraid of losing their jobs (50% - 38%), as well as those who currently hold a job that pays less than their previous job (51% - 37%). Democrats lead among women 48% - 42%. Republicans have a small edge in party loyalty, as 90% of Republicans plan to vote for GOP candidates compared to 84% of Democrats who say they plan to vote for their party's nominees.

The poll found that of those who replied they had already voted Democrats lead 48% - 44%.  In an indicator of how late deciders may move, voters who said recent information has changed their opinion about the Congressional election (10% of the sample), a majority (59%) said they are more likely to vote for the Republican candidate.

A majority of independent voters (53%) said their representative does not deserve re-election, as did 49% of Republicans.

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama's job as President?

Obama Job Performance

Oct 25

Oct. 18

Oct 14

Oct 11

Oct 4

Sept 27

Sept 20

Sept
14

Aug 30

Aug
23

Aug
12

Aug
4

Jul 26

July 19

June 28

Approve

47%

46%

44%

49%

46%

45%

49%

46%

44%

46%

43%

43%

46%

45%

46%

Disapprove

53%

54%

56%

51%

53%

54%

51%

54%

56%

53%

56%

57%

53%

54%

53%

Not sure

<1%

<1

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

 Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

 

Among independents, 41% approve and 58% disapprove of Obama's job performance. His approval among Democrats is 85%, and among Republicans it is 8%.

Pollster John Zogby: "There was very little change within the electorate during October, except perhaps a small decrease in the intensity edge Republicans have held over Democrats with each party's core supporters. The GOP remains poised for what could be great success due to independents who (as they did in 2008) still want change and voters who are very anxious about their jobs."

The interactive poll consisted of 2,070 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/-2.2%.  A sampling of Zogby International's online panel, which is representative of the adult population of the U.S., was invited to participate.  Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, and education to more accurately reflect the population.

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